大摩：AI算力一路向西

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest report highlights a positive trend in the data center sector driven by demand scale, resource availability, and the "East Data West Computing" policy, which encourages large-scale cloud service providers to shift data center deployments to remote areas, benefiting local data center builders [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Investment - The capital expenditure of mainland China's large-scale cloud service providers is projected to reach 440 billion RMB by 2026, with an estimated 32% (approximately 141 billion RMB) allocated for domestic computing power [1] - The report estimates that the total new orders for third-party data centers (excluding self-built data centers by cloud service providers) will increase by 66% to 3.4 gigawatts by 2026 [1] Group 2: Impact of AI Chips and Policy Changes - If the import of H200 chips by ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and DeepSeek is fully approved, the forecast for new orders in China's third-party data centers could be revised upwards to approximately 4.5 gigawatts by 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 120% [1] - In a baseline scenario, remote data centers are expected to contribute 2.4 gigawatts of new orders by 2026, increasing to 3.3 gigawatts by 2027, accounting for about 70% of new orders [1] Group 3: Regional Development and Infrastructure - The "East Data West Computing" initiative effectively consolidates supply into ten major clusters, primarily focused on four remote cities, with Inner Mongolia's Ulanqab and Ningxia's Zhongwei identified as key beneficiaries in the AI era [1] - Zhongwei is emerging as a new data center hub, aiming for a total capacity of 750 megawatts by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving 2 gigawatts by the end of 2027 [1] - Alibaba is a key player in the Zhongwei cluster, having established infrastructure connecting the hub with data transmission capabilities [1] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Prospects - Since 2016, Zhongwei has welcomed its first batch of data center projects, with clients including AWS China, Qihoo 360, and Meituan, indicating a mature local network infrastructure and talent pool [1] - Several internet and cloud companies, including Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, are interested in establishing parks in Zhongwei, along with AI firms like Zhipu [1]