Citi(US:C) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-03 02:06Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that current gold prices have significantly overextended future uncertainties, leading to a substantial downgrade of the medium to long-term gold price outlook, with a warning that in a bear market scenario, gold prices could drop to $3,000 per ounce [1][3] - Citi's global head, Maximilian Layton, indicates that while gold prices may still rise in the short term, their valuation has reached extreme levels, characterized by a decoupling from the real economy, with global annual spending on gold now at 0.7% of GDP, the highest level in 55 years [3] - The report anticipates that the risk factors supporting current high gold prices will dissipate later this year, including a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with a baseline scenario suggesting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may reach some form of agreement by summer 2026, and a downgrade in the situation in Iran [3] Group 2 - The U.S. economy may enter a "Goldilocks" state of high growth and low inflation, which would weaken the demand for gold as a portfolio hedge [3] - Citi expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its independence, which is also viewed as a medium-term bearish factor for gold prices [3] - Based on the analysis, Citi predicts that gold prices will begin to decline in the second half of 2026, with a further drop expected in 2027, forecasting a return to $4,000 per ounce in the baseline scenario and a potential fall to $3,000 per ounce in a bear market scenario with a 20% probability [3]