“黄金估值已达极端水平”，花旗警告：金价支柱面临坍塌

Core Viewpoint - Citi Research warns that gold valuations have reached extreme levels, with global gold spending as a percentage of GDP soaring to 0.7%, the highest in 55 years. If the gold allocation ratio returns to the historical norm of 0.35%-0.4%, gold prices could face a "halving" risk [1][2][8]. Group 1: Current Valuation and Market Dynamics - The current annual global spending on gold as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.7%, significantly exceeding levels during the 1980 oil crisis [2]. - Gold prices have decoupled from mining production costs, with high-cost gold miners experiencing profit margins at a 50-year high [4]. - The ratio of gold to global broad money supply has risen to 16%, surpassing the peak during the early 1970s oil crisis [4]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Citi maintains a 0-3 month target price of $5,000 per ounce but expresses caution for the second half of 2026, predicting a decline to $4,000 per ounce by 2027 [1][14]. - The baseline scenario anticipates gold prices to average $4,600 per ounce in 2026, with quarterly predictions of $5,000 in Q1, $4,800 in Q2, $4,400 in Q3, and $4,200 in Q4 [14]. Group 3: Risks and Market Sentiment - A mere 5% exit of profit-taking could negate global physical demand, posing a significant risk to the market [12]. - Factors supporting current high gold prices, such as geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, are expected to diminish by late 2026, potentially leading to a decrease in gold's investment appeal [9]. - The potential for a return to a balanced pricing based on savings distribution could see gold prices drop to between $2,500 and $3,000 per ounce if the allocation ratio normalizes [8].