国信证券：石化行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏 推荐油气、炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工的投资方向

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating stabilization in industry profitability [1] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditure in several sub-sectors declining for multiple consecutive quarters, signaling the end of the current expansion cycle [2] - The "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, with various sub-sectors responding by developing industry guidelines [2] - The industry is expected to see stricter approvals for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [2] Demand Side - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus measures [3] - Emerging demand driven by sectors such as renewable energy and AI is expected to support the technological upgrade of key chemical materials [3] Overseas Chemical Capacity Clearance - The European chemical industry has faced a wave of plant closures since 2025 due to high energy costs and aging facilities, while China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market [4] - The domestic petrochemical industry chain is well-established, and many chemical products are highly competitive globally, suggesting that Chinese chemical companies will continue to increase their market share amid overseas capacity clearance and anticipated demand recovery [4] Macroeconomic and Chemical Product Prices - As of January 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in production activities compared to the previous month [5] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported at 4120 points on January 30, 2026, a decrease of 4.83% from the end of the previous year, although the ex-factory prices of major chemical products have increased [5] Oil Prices - Geopolitical risks have increased in January, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 13.57% and 16.17% respectively compared to the end of the previous year [6]