高盛如何看沃什？市场总“误判”新美联储主席，沃什“缩表”很难，而降息是获提名前提

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman may be misjudged, as Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that Warsh's actual stance may differ from the perceived hawkishness reflected in market pricing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, long-term bond yields rose slightly, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals fell sharply, indicating a market expectation of a hawkish asset balance policy [1]. - Goldman Sachs' bond trader noted that the market has already priced in the expectations of a steepening yield curve and narrowing swap spreads, suggesting that the anticipated hawkish comments from Warsh may not lead to a resumption of quantitative tightening [4]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh has previously advocated for interest rate cuts, arguing that the Trump administration's deregulation and advancements in artificial intelligence are deflationary forces, and that the Fed should not maintain high rates solely due to strong economic growth [2]. - He has been a long-time critic of the Fed's previous quantitative easing measures, believing that a large balance sheet distorts markets and exacerbates inequality, and he supports a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to offset financial environment impacts [2][3]. Group 3: Institutional Resistance - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expressed skepticism about Warsh's ability to significantly reduce the balance sheet, citing strong internal support within the Fed for the current ample reserves framework [2]. - Mericle emphasized that the Fed's decision-makers have a strong preference for the current operational framework, which has been developed over the past decade [2]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - If Warsh aims to achieve balance sheet reduction without raising long-term interest rates, he may need to relax bank regulations, such as adjusting liquidity coverage ratios, which would require time and coordination [3]. - Warsh believes that the current regulatory framework imposes excessive compliance costs on banks, particularly smaller ones, and advocates for a new regulatory system tailored to the U.S. rather than strictly adhering to international Basel agreements [3]. Group 5: Historical Context and Market Misjudgment - Goldman Sachs highlighted that the market often misinterprets the initial positions of new Fed chairs, with each recent predecessor experiencing significant misinterpretations in their first year [7]. - The firm noted that the market's assessment of Warsh's views may be overly focused on his past criticisms, while the actual policy implications may take time to materialize as the Fed operates within a strong institutional consensus [7].