Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-03 05:23Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that Kevin Warsh will not genuinely push for a restart of quantitative tightening due to its destructive impact on risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Trump's nomination of Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the dollar rebounded while precious metals plummeted, indicating that the market is pricing in his "hawkish" views on the balance sheet [1] - Market trading based on Warsh's historical "hawkish" stance has some rationale, but actual implementation will require more time [2] Group 2: Warsh's Background and Influence - Warsh, who was appointed to the Federal Reserve by President Bush in 2006, held a hawkish monetary policy stance and was a critic of the Fed's quantitative easing measures post-financial crisis [1] - Goldman Sachs' trading and research team suggests that the market may be misjudging Warsh's actual position as the new Fed Chair [1] - The decision-making process of the Federal Reserve is one vote per member, and the current personnel changes are less significant compared to the large-scale turnover during Powell's tenure, meaning the new Chair will need time to establish influence [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical interpretations of Fed candidates often differ significantly from subsequent assessments, as illustrated by past comments from Powell, Yellen, and Bernanke [2] - Analysts emphasize that willingness to lower interest rates is a prerequisite for obtaining the Fed Chair position [1]