国信证券：金价波动不改金饰龙头长期逻辑 AI+赋能代运营商业务破局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite short-term emotional impacts from gold price fluctuations, the fundamental performance of the retail sector remains stable due to a shift towards brand building, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural narrative capabilities, which are expected to generate "alpha returns" [1] - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing significant price volatility, with COMEX gold rising by 12.28% at the beginning of the year but then dropping by 8.35% in a single day. However, this volatility is not expected to affect the long-term growth of leading companies in the sector [1] - Companies with strong pricing advantages and operational capabilities in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as top firms with good product design or differentiation capabilities, are likely to continue strengthening their business advantages and achieve sustained high growth [1] Group 2 - The investment recommendation maintains an "outperform" rating for the sector, anticipating that after a certain increase in domestic and international markets by the end of 2025, there may be increased volatility in the market, with potential elasticity in the consumer sector under marginal policy support [3] - In the gold and jewelry segment, the industry is entering a consumption peak season, and overall valuations are low. Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business and those with fixed-price product capabilities are expected to achieve stable growth [3] - The beauty and personal care sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of a turning point. Companies that have developed platform mechanisms are expected to ensure growth sustainability through both internal and external means [3] Group 3 - The cross-border e-commerce sector has demonstrated strong risk resistance capabilities over the past year, and the application of AI in channels and products is expected to catalyze fundamental growth through cost reduction and product innovation [3] - The offline retail sector is entering a sales peak season at the end of the year, and a continuous recovery in CPI may positively impact same-store sales for supermarkets. Ongoing adjustments in multiple supermarkets and the introduction of private labels present multiple highlights for the future [3]