“沃什交易”撼动全球，大摩邢自强最新判断

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in capital markets is driven by multiple factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, concerns over liquidity tightening, and disappointing earnings from some AI companies [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - Capital markets have experienced "roller coaster" volatility, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who advocates for "unchanged interest rates and accelerated balance sheet reduction" [1] - The fluctuations in Japanese government bonds and rumors of currency intervention have also contributed to market instability [1] - Concerns over liquidity tightening are particularly evident in the precious metals market, which has seen "epic turbulence" [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - If Kevin Warsh assumes the role of Federal Reserve Chair, it is expected that he will continue the path of interest rate cuts while accelerating the reduction of the balance sheet and minimizing the use of unconventional liquidity tools [1] - This shift may elevate the central tendency of market volatility, making fluctuations more normalized [1] - Forward guidance provided by the Federal Reserve may not resemble the patterns observed over the past decade [1] Group 3: Economic Direction - The overarching direction of the U.S. economy remains unchanged, characterized by relatively high investment driving growth, persistent inflation, and low interest rates aimed at debt reduction [1] - The long-term process of the fiat currency system, represented by the U.S. dollar, gradually weakening against other strategic assets and experiencing credit erosion, continues unabated [1]