Nintendo(US:NTDOY) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-04 07:55Core Viewpoint - Nintendo's stock price experienced its largest drop in 18 months due to disappointing earnings data, highlighting significant pressure on operating profit margins and concerns over rising storage chip prices affecting profitability through 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nintendo's latest earnings report revealed an operating profit of approximately 155.21 billion yen (about $998.5 million), significantly below analysts' average estimate of 180.7 billion yen [4]. - Despite a sales increase of over 80% to 806.32 billion yen, the operating profit growth was limited to 23%, indicating a substantial compression in profit margins [4]. - The company maintained its annual revenue and operating profit guidance, projecting sales of 19 million units of the Switch 2 from June to March, which analysts view as conservative [11]. Group 2: Market Concerns - The rising costs of storage components, particularly DRAM and NAND, are expected to consume a significant portion of hardware costs, potentially accounting for 21%-23% of total hardware costs by 2026 [2]. - TrendForce has downgraded its forecast for game console shipments in 2026 from a year-over-year decline of 3.5% to 4.4% due to the impact of rising storage prices [2]. - Analysts express concerns that Nintendo's low pricing strategy in Japan, aimed at attracting consumers, is further diluting profit margins [4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The demand for storage components driven by AI data center construction is significantly impacting the availability and pricing of these components, leading to increased costs for consumer electronics [2][12]. - The price of DRAM has surged by over 370% since September 2025, with DDR5 DRAM chips experiencing a price increase of up to 455% [6]. - The gaming industry faces heightened competition, with platforms like Roblox attracting younger audiences, posing a long-term threat to Nintendo's market share [8]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Nintendo's management acknowledges the challenges posed by the current market environment and is engaging in long-term discussions with suppliers to secure stable storage chip procurement [10]. - The company is considering potential price adjustments for its hardware in response to rising storage costs, although it aims to weigh various options carefully [10]. - The ability to maintain profitability will depend on the success of software sales and the density of blockbuster titles within Nintendo's software ecosystem [12].