摩根大通警告：全球铜库存已翻番，短期铜价或迎来盘整

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in global copper inventories, which have more than doubled over the past year, reaching approximately 1 million tons, a five-year high, despite supply disruptions in global mining [1][2]. - The report indicates that as of February 2026, global total copper inventory stands at about 1 million tons, marking a 113% increase from 470,000 tons in the same period of 2025, underscoring a weakening demand side [2]. Group 2 - Market signals show mixed results, with copper concentrate treatment charges remaining negative, indicating tight supply on the raw material side, while speculative positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are declining, reflecting cautious investor sentiment [4]. - As of early February 2026, copper prices are holding steady at around $5.30 per pound, but both technical and sentiment indicators suggest short-term pressure on prices [4]. Group 3 - The outlook for the copper market remains cautious, with expectations for prices to consolidate around $12,000 per ton (approximately $5.45 per pound), primarily due to seasonal demand weakness and high inventory levels [8]. - The market may see new volatility and upward opportunities only after clearer signals of demand recovery post the Chinese New Year holiday in the latter part of Q2 2026, contingent on economic stimulus measures and increased manufacturing orders [8].