“AI替代恐慌”愈演愈烈！全球软件股跌势难止 小摩直言：行业已至“未审先判”境地

Core Viewpoint - A market panic triggered by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology is spreading globally, particularly impacting the software sector, with ongoing pessimism among investors [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On Tuesday, a basket of U.S. software stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs plummeted by 6%, marking the largest single-day drop since April due to tariff-induced sell-offs [5] - The financial services index fell nearly 7%, while the Nasdaq 100 index experienced a maximum intraday drop of 2.4%, ultimately closing down 1.6%, resulting in a total market value loss of approximately $285 billion [5] - The sell-off quickly spread to Asian markets on Wednesday, with European markets continuing to decline, as evidenced by a UBS index of European companies at risk of AI disruption, which fell by 8% on Tuesday and an additional 2.1% on Wednesday [5] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Morgan Stanley analyst Toby Ogg noted that investor sentiment towards the software sector has shifted from "presumed guilty" to "guilty until proven innocent" [1] - Ogg's discussions with over 50 investors revealed a significant reduction in software stock holdings over the past 12 to 18 months, with a general lack of interest in bottom-fishing despite the recent downturn [1][6] - The current earnings season shows that only 67% of software companies in the S&P 500 exceeded revenue expectations, significantly lower than the overall tech sector's 83% [6] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Ogg stated that for software companies, exceeding earnings expectations is no longer a compelling factor for the market unless they can convincingly demonstrate that AI is a sustainable growth driver rather than a long-term hindrance [6] - The pricing model based on user count is under threat as AI tools may reduce the number of accounts needed for customers to complete tasks, directly impacting revenue [7] - The introduction of new AI products by leading platforms, such as Anthropic's recent legal AI tool, exacerbates investor concerns regarding the software sector [7]