CHINA MOBILE(HK:00941) Ge Long Hui·2026-02-04 14:45Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced increased volatility, particularly among the three major telecom operators, due to a tax reform announcement. China Mobile (00941.HK) is at a critical technical level, with intense competition between bulls and bears around a key price range [1]. Technical Analysis - As of February 3, China Mobile's stock price closed at 78.3 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.38%. However, the overall technical pattern indicates clear signs of adjustment and potential reversal. The stock price has fallen below key moving averages (10-day at 79.29 HKD, 30-day at 80.84 HKD, and 60-day at 83.77 HKD), indicating ongoing short- to medium-term adjustment pressure [2]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 40, entering the traditional oversold territory, suggesting that selling pressure may have been over-released. Additionally, momentum indicators are signaling "buy," indicating that bullish forces are accumulating [2]. Support and Resistance Analysis - Support Levels: The first significant support level is at 76.7 HKD, which aligns with a psychological barrier and the low point formed after market sell-offs on February 2 (approximately 75.85 HKD). If this level is breached, the market may test a stronger second support level at 74.9 HKD, which is seen as the last solid defense for bulls [4]. - Resistance Levels: For a rebound to occur, the stock must first challenge the resistance at 80.4 HKD, which is near the 10-day and 30-day moving averages. A more critical resistance level is at 82.1 HKD, which is close to the 60-day moving average and is essential for reversing the current downtrend [5]. Market Reaction to Tax Reform - The recent volatility in China Mobile's stock is primarily driven by a tax adjustment announcement, which will increase the value-added tax rate on telecom services from 6% to 9% starting February 1, 2026. This change is expected to raise operational costs for telecom operators, impacting their revenue and profits in the short term, leading to a collective adjustment in telecom stocks on February 2 [5]. Investor Sentiment and Product Analysis - Following the tax rate announcement, there was a notable adjustment in related stocks, but by February 3, the market began to stabilize. China Mobile's stock rebounded from around 75 HKD to approximately 78.5 HKD, indicating that some investors believe the short-term negative factors have been absorbed [7]. - Investors are primarily using call options (e.g., China Mobile call option 24413) to bet on a rebound, while bearish investors may consider put options (e.g., China Mobile put option 21625) as a strategy [8]. Product Strategy Recommendations - Bullish Strategy: For investors anticipating a rebound, options like China Mobile call option 24413, which offers about 10.6 times leverage with a strike price of 88.88 HKD, are recommended. This option is suitable for betting on upward challenges to resistance levels [11]. - Bearish Strategy: For those expecting continued downward pressure, put options or bear certificates are suggested. For instance, the China Mobile put option 21625 has a strike price of 75.83 HKD, close to the first support level [12].