中国移动（0941） 更新报告 公司经营业绩稳中有进，派息率再创新高 | | | 罗凡环 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 行业 电讯服务 股价 79 港元 目标价 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代码 941.HK 已发行 H 股本 216.54 亿股 H 股总市值 16500 亿港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股净现值 73 港元 主要股东 中国移动香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公众股东 30.4% | | | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1,050,187 | 1,041,677 | 1,045,445 | 1,054,129 | 90 ...

中國移動（0941） 更新報告 公司經營業績穩中有進，派息率再創新高 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 羅凡環 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 行業 電訊服務 股價 79 港元 目標價 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代碼 941.HK 已發行 H 股本 216.54 億股 H 股總市值 16500 億港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股淨現值 73 港元 主要股東 中國移動香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公眾股東 30.4% ➢ 風險提示：公司分紅派息、ARPU 提升不及預期、行業政策影響、行業競爭加劇等。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.1 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% primarily due to a one-time tax impact from the separation of package revenue [4][10]. - The company has adjusted its business scope to focus on three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services, with rapid development in AI-related businesses and a continuous strengthening of token operations [10]. - Capital expenditures have continued to decline, with a structural shift towards computing power networks; cash flow has been affected by accelerated outflows, but the dividend payout has already met the three-year guidance ahead of schedule [10][4]. - For 2026, despite the impact of VAT adjustments, the company aims for steady revenue growth and profit growth on a comparable basis, with guidance indicating rapid growth in free cash flow and a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio [10][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, with a 0.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 137.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% decline. Excluding the one-time tax impact, the comparable net profit growth was 2.0% [4][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 255.5 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase, while the net profit for the quarter was 21.7 billion yuan, down 20.9% [10]. Business Strategy - The company has redefined its business focus into three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services. The revenue from communication services was 714.9 billion yuan, down 1.0%, while computing power services grew by 11.1% to 89.8 billion yuan [10][4]. - The company aims to become a world-class technology service enterprise by 2030, with specific targets for revenue growth in communication and computing power services during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2025 were 150.9 billion yuan, an 8.0% decrease, with a forecast of 136.6 billion yuan for 2026, a 9.5% decline [10][4]. - Operating cash flow for 2025 was 232.9 billion yuan, down 26%, while free cash flow decreased by 46% to 82.0 billion yuan. The company expects free cash flow to grow rapidly in 2026 [10][4].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 运营商 25 年总结：稳健增长，强化 AI [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、运营商专题 当前时点，运营商传统业务持续承压，在宏观经济环境以及 5G 高渗透率节点，相关业务盈利能力持续缩减。运营商行业智能 化、数字化转型已初见成效，相关业务占收比持续提升，推动 整体收入稳健；利润端受益于降本增效和折旧摊销减少，增速 维持稳定。 我们认为： 1）算力网络方面将是长线投资热点和方向，运营商持续智能与 算力网络建设，是算力基础底座的生态核心，在算力持续增长 过程中，运营商 IDC、服务器、光模块、光纤光缆产业链有望 持续受益。 2）伴随新一代通信业务拓展，我们预计包括 AI 物联网（车联 网、AIOT）、卫星通信以及低空经济等有望推动行业新需求衍 生，是未来提升估值的潜在动力。 2、风险提示 移动业务收入稳定不及预期；2B2G 业务应收账款规模扩大；云 业务竞争加大导致毛利率下降；宏观经济影响。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Mobile (600941.SH) with a current price of 93.42 CNY [2] Core Insights - China Mobile achieved a revenue of 1,050.187 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.095 billion CNY, down 0.9% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its differentiated competitive advantage through increased investment in intelligent computing and network services, with significant growth in its cloud services and data center revenues [8] - The mobile customer base reached 1.01 billion, with 5G network users at 642 million, marking a penetration rate of 63.9% [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 136.3 billion CNY, 144.6 billion CNY, and 147.3 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 14 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated at 1,063.939 billion CNY, 1,084.505 billion CNY, and 1,106.718 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 1.3%, 1.9%, and 2.0% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show slight declines in 2026 and 2027, followed by a modest increase in 2028 [9] - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately 1,509 billion CNY in 2025 and 1,366 billion CNY in 2026, primarily to enhance communication networks and accelerate intelligent computing capabilities [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. military presence and actions in Iran, with President Trump claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz and indicating that Iran is eager for a deal [2][4] - The U.S. military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 troops deployed, aiming for a quick resolution without occupying territory, reminiscent of the Gulf War strategy [3] - Protests against the Trump administration are expected to be among the largest in U.S. history, with over 9 million participants planned across 50 states [4] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of the ongoing conflict on global markets, including a focus on oil prices and potential supply chain disruptions, particularly in the aluminum sector due to attacks on major aluminum plants in the Middle East [5][21] - The article notes that the conflict has led to significant increases in oil prices, with Vietnam experiencing a doubling of diesel prices since the onset of hostilities [18] - The article mentions the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the U.S. non-farm payroll report and China's PMI data, which will be closely watched in the context of the Middle East situation [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 03 月 29 日 中国移动（600941.SH） 充裕现金流支撑红利价值，算力服务驱动增长新动能 TMT 及中小盘/通信 2026 年 3 月 26 日，中国移动发布 2025 年年度业绩，营业收入 10502 亿元， 当前股价：93.42 元 同比增长 0.91%；利润总额 1756 亿元，同比下降 1.56%；归母净利润 1371 亿 元，同比下降 0.92%。2025 年下半年，公司现金回笼加速，自由现金流健康充 沛，股东回报能力突出，提前实现 75%的派息率目标。同时，公司业务结构转 型加速，算力服务和智能服务收入占主业比重提升 1.4 个百分点至 20.2%，新 兴业务成为公司核心增长引擎。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 21654 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 903 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2022.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 84.3 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 64.3 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.8 | | 资产负债率 | 33.2% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year to RMB 1,050.2 billion for 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.9% to RMB 137.1 billion, which was below previous forecasts [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from opportunities in the "AI+" sector, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities in network, cloud, and edge computing [1][4]. - The report anticipates a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio, projecting a dividend of HKD 5.27 for the fiscal year 2025, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability - Traditional communication service revenue declined by 1% to RMB 7,148.6 billion, with mobile ARPU slightly decreasing to RMB 46.8 [2][3]. - The company has over 1 billion mobile users and achieved 1.48 billion IoT card connections by the end of 2025, indicating a solid user base [2][3]. - Digital business segments, particularly AI and intelligent services, are projected to grow rapidly, with computing service revenue expected to increase by 11% to RMB 898 billion in 2025 [3][4]. Cost Management and Financial Outlook - The report suggests that the company will optimize its revenue structure and improve cost efficiency to mitigate the impact of VAT policy changes [4][5]. - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease by 9.5% to RMB 136.6 billion in 2026, which will help reduce depreciation and amortization pressures [4][5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026-2028 is adjusted to RMB 130.2 billion, RMB 134.2 billion, and RMB 138.4 billion, respectively [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of RMB 114.3 for A-shares and HKD 94.4 for H-shares, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.7 times for 2026 [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a high level of profitability and long-term growth potential in the digital era, despite the impact of VAT adjustments [5][10].

证券研究报告 中国移动 (600941 CH/941 HK) 港股通 通信+算力+智能三大赛道稳步前行 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 中国移动发布 2025 年度业绩：公司营业收入同比增长 0.9%至 10502 亿元；归 母净利润同比下降 0.9%至 1371 亿元，低于我们此前预测（1454 亿元），主要 系传统业务收入略有承压，可比口径（剔除套餐收入分拆纳税影响）归母净利润 同比增长 2%。公司拟派发 2025 年度全年股息 5.27 港元，派息率提升至 75%， 公司预计 2026 年派息率将稳中有升。数智化时代，公司在"AI+"赛道迎来了 更广阔的发展机遇，网、云、端各项业务均有望受益，长期而言，我们看好公司 作为全球电信运营商龙头的经营韧性与竞争力，维持"买入"评级。 传统业务收入及移动 ARPU 略有承压 数字化业务方面，公司重点发力 AI 领域，强化智算资源供给，在数智生活、 数智生产、数智治理等场景发挥创新牵引作用。细分来看，2025 年算力服 务收入同比增长 11%至 898 亿元，其中，数据中心/云算服务收入分别同比 增长 8.7%/13.9%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China have shifted their investment focus towards "computing power," establishing it as the core of their capital expenditures, surpassing traditional network construction as the primary investment driver for the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In 2025, China Mobile reported operating revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.05 trillion yuan, maintaining its leadership position [3]. - China Telecom's operating revenue was 529.6 billion yuan, while China Unicom reported 392.2 billion yuan in operating revenue [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - China Mobile plans to reduce its total capital expenditure to 136.6 billion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with computing power investments increasing by 62.4% to 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 28% of its capital expenditure [3]. - China Telecom's capital expenditure for 2025 was 80.4 billion yuan, with computing infrastructure investments of 20.2 billion yuan, making up about 25% of its total [4]. - China Unicom's total capital expenditure for the year was 54.2 billion yuan, with a projected capital expenditure of around 50 billion yuan for 2026, where computing power investments are expected to exceed 35% [4]. Group 3: Computing Power Capacity - As of now, China Mobile's total computing power capacity has reached 92.5 EFLOPS (FP16), while China Telecom's capacity stands at 91 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's capacity is at 45 EFLOPS [5]. - The demand for large AI models has highlighted that mere network connectivity is insufficient to meet market needs, indicating a fundamental restructuring of the operators' underlying logic from being mere "transporters of information" to becoming "computing power providers" in the intelligent era [5].