Cambricon(SH:688256) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2026-02-04 23:56Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cambricon has been under pressure due to unverified rumors, despite a recent positive earnings forecast for 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics with increasing competition from new entrants in the AI chip sector [3][5][6]. Stock Performance - On February 3, Cambricon's stock price fell by over 13% during trading, closing down 9.18% at 1128 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 475.7 billion CNY [5]. - The following day, the stock continued to decline by 5.32%, closing at 1068 CNY per share, resulting in a total market value drop exceeding 70 billion CNY over two days [5]. - Year-to-date, as of February 4, Cambricon's stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 21.21% [6]. Earnings Forecast - Cambricon recently announced an optimistic earnings forecast for 2025, projecting revenue between 6 billion to 7 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02% [6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [6]. Market Competition - The entry of new competitors in the AI chip market, such as Moore Threads and MuXi, has diminished Cambricon's previous market scarcity, leading to increased competition and potential pressure on its valuation [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from a scarcity-driven market to one characterized by increased competition, which may impact Cambricon's growth rates moving forward [8][9]. Industry Dynamics - The AI chip market is experiencing rapid growth, but the sustainability of Cambricon's high growth rates is questioned due to the intensifying competition and the potential for market share dilution [7][8]. - Cambricon's market share in the AI accelerator market is relatively small, with estimates indicating it holds about 1.4% compared to Nvidia's 70% [8][9]. Competitor Performance - Other emerging players in the AI chip sector have shown significant revenue growth, with projections for 2025 indicating substantial increases for companies like Moore Threads and MuXi, which may further challenge Cambricon's market position [9][10].