高盛：预计“沃什时代”美联储2026年6月、9月各降息25基点 不会大幅缩表

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to complete a leadership transition from the "Powell era" to the "Waller era" this year, raising concerns in the market about a potential interruption in the rate-cutting process due to Waller's past hawkish statements [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that the market has misjudged Waller's policy stance, indicating that under his leadership, the Federal Reserve will continue to pursue rate cuts and will not significantly reduce the balance sheet [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts in 2026, specifically in June and September, each by 25 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite Waller's long-standing criticism of large-scale balance sheet policies, which he believes distort markets and exacerbate inequality, Goldman Sachs predicts he will not advocate for a significant balance sheet reduction [2] - The reasoning behind this prediction is the broad support within the Federal Reserve for the ample reserves framework, as aggressive balance sheet reduction could be too damaging to risk assets [2] - Most Federal Reserve decision-makers and staff believe that the balance sheet should grow with the economy, as a natural result of increased demand for liabilities and the ample reserves framework [2]