银河证券：黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固 央行购金将持续增加

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at the Federal Reserve should not be automatically equated with a major market trend shift; the impact of its policies on the fundamental aspects of the U.S. economy is crucial for dollar pricing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - A Federal Reserve led by Walsh may initiate a profound transformation in the central bank's role, shifting from a post-financial crisis support system to a more traditional approach focused on rules and discipline [1] - Short-term dollar strength is anticipated, while a long-term "slow bear" trend is expected [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are projected to rise, putting pressure on prices; if policies are credible, long-term inflation expectations may stabilize around 2% [1] - Global stock markets are expected to face short-term pressure, with U.S. stocks likely to experience a "break before recovery" in the long term [1] Group 3: Gold and Reserve Dynamics - The core logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid, with central bank purchases of gold expected to continue [1] - Any flaws in dollar credibility could accelerate the construction of a multipolar reserve system globally [1]