华尔街有多悲观？高盛直接把“软件”类比“报纸”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Wall Street's fear of AI's impact on software stocks has reached an extreme, with Goldman Sachs comparing the current software industry to the newspaper industry of the early 2000s and the tobacco industry of the late 1990s, indicating a fundamental doubt about the long-term growth and profitability of the software sector [1][2][7] - Goldman Sachs reports that software stocks have become the center of the AI impact narrative, experiencing a 15% drop in one week and a cumulative decline of 29% from their September 2025 peak, with their "AI risk exposure basket" down 12% year-to-date [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the current market discussions are not just about profit downgrades but whether the software industry is facing a long-term decline similar to that of the newspaper industry [2][4] Group 2 - Despite a significant drop in software stock valuations, Goldman Sachs highlights that the underlying assumptions behind these valuations are collapsing, with current profit margins and expected revenue growth still at their highest levels in 20 years, significantly above the S&P 500 average [3][5] - The forward P/E ratio for the software sector has decreased from approximately 35 times at the end of 2025 to around 20 times currently, marking a low not seen since 2014 [5][6] - Historical cases, such as the newspaper industry from 2002 to 2009, show that stock prices did not bottom out until profit expectations stabilized, not merely when valuations appeared cheap [4][7] Group 3 - There is a noticeable shift in market preference away from "AI risk" towards sectors perceived as less impacted by AI, such as industrials, energy, chemicals, transportation, and banking [8][9] - Funds have significantly reduced their exposure to software stocks, with hedge funds cutting back while large mutual funds began systematically underweighting software stocks since mid-last year [8][9] - The report indicates that while the overall sentiment is cautious, some sub-sectors still show defensive characteristics, but stability in profit expectations is crucial for stock price recovery [9][11]