恒生科技创六个月新低，为何又步入技术性熊市？

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced a significant decline, entering a technical bear market, while A-shares have shown a contrasting upward trend, raising questions about the performance of the tech sector in Hong Kong compared to mainland China [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index peaked at 6715 points on October 3, 2025, but has since fallen to 5366 points by February 4, 2026, marking a decline of over 20% [1]. - In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from a low of 3815 points on December 16, 2025, to 4102 points, achieving a gain of over 6% [1]. - The tech-focused indices in mainland China, such as the Sci-Tech 200 and Sci-Tech 100, have shown impressive gains of 19.30% and 18.49%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Fund Flows - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased from 24.56 times on September 30, 2025, to 22.87 times, indicating a valuation at the 27.27% percentile over the past decade [3]. - Despite the decline in the index, net inflows from southbound funds have remained positive, with inflows of 925 billion, 1219 billion, 229 billion, and 690 billion yuan over the last four months [3]. Group 3: Component Stock Performance - Among the 30 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index, only 5 stocks have risen, while 25 have declined, with significant drops in companies like Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi, all experiencing declines exceeding 30% [3]. - Major holdings such as Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent have also seen substantial declines, with Alibaba down 9.89% and Tencent down 15.84% [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Allocation - Recent rumors regarding increased taxes on internet value-added services have negatively impacted market sentiment, despite being refuted by credible sources [6]. - Some funds have adjusted their regional allocations, reducing exposure to Hong Kong stocks like Alibaba while increasing positions in U.S. stocks such as Google, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [6][9]. - The latest quarterly reports indicate a trend of reallocating assets from Hong Kong to U.S. markets, particularly in sectors like AI and technology, which have shown better performance [9][13].