摩根大通预警：黄金等贵金属未来几周将进入盘整期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rally in precious metals has temporarily paused, entering a consolidation phase despite the long-term bullish trend remaining intact [2][5] - The report indicates that the dollar index's fluctuation below the 100 mark and the S&P 500/gold ratio suggest that the long-term "currency devaluation trade" is not over, with the current consolidation being a rest period within a bull market rather than a bear market reversal [2][5][14] - Short-term price action in gold shows characteristics of a "spike" reversal, which typically signals the onset of a consolidation phase, but this does not indicate the end of the long-term rebound [2][5] Group 2 - From a tactical perspective, gold prices are expected to undergo a necessary consolidation period before attempting to breach the 5100-point mark, with investors advised to monitor key technical levels to define the trading range [3] - The report emphasizes that the long-term price patterns and comparisons to the late 1970s currency devaluation cycle suggest that the long-term currency devaluation cycle is not yet complete, indicating that the foundation for a bull market remains [5] - The macro drivers supporting the long-term bullish outlook for commodities are primarily rooted in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar index experiencing significant fluctuations and remaining trapped within a defined range [8][14] Group 3 - The report highlights that the recent surge in copper prices is partly driven by "currency devaluation funds," with implied global manufacturing PMI expectations significantly higher than actual readings, suggesting that while copper may be slightly overvalued, the cyclical trend remains intact [6][7] - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting the long-term bullish logic for precious metals and commodities, as the dollar index has primarily operated below the critical long-term pivot point of 100 over the past eight months [14]