机构看涨昆仑万维至九百亿市值

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is strategically shifting its focus from competing directly with major players in the AI field to building a differentiated competitive advantage in vertical markets and overseas expansion, aiming for long-term market positioning and ecological advantages rather than short-term profitability [2][5][9]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders between 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion CNY, continuing the trend of losses from the previous year [2]. - The company expects a revenue growth of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with an increasing proportion of revenue coming from overseas markets [2][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 190 million CNY, marking a 180.13% year-on-year increase, but ended Q4 with losses [3][11]. Investment and R&D - From 2021 to 2024, Kunlun Wanwei's R&D expenditures increased from 628 million CNY to 1.598 billion CNY, with a total of 1.211 billion CNY spent in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - Sales expenses also rose significantly, reaching 2.891 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily for global promotion of AI applications [4]. Market Strategy - The company has opted for a differentiated competition strategy, focusing on vertical markets and AI application ecosystems rather than engaging in direct competition with leading firms in the general AI model space [5][6]. - Kunlun Wanwei has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and Mureka, which have shown significant advancements and commercial viability [6][7]. Growth Areas - The short drama segment has emerged as an unexpected growth point, with platforms like DramaWave and FreeReels achieving substantial user engagement and revenue growth [8]. - The company anticipates that its short drama business will generate 1.68 billion CNY in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 900% year-on-year increase [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year for Kunlun Wanwei, with expectations of narrowing losses and potential profitability by 2027 [11]. - The company's total market value is currently estimated at 68.8 billion CNY, with a projected target market value of 93.2 billion CNY based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach [11].