国海证券：渗透率提升+AI升级 智能座舱国产供应链再成长

Core Insights - The smart cockpit industry is entering a clear growth cycle characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, driven by deeper domestic penetration into vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan and accelerated demand from overseas automakers transitioning to electric and intelligent systems [1] Group 1: Products and Trends - The smart cockpit, as a human-machine-environment integrated system, is experiencing a continuous increase in penetration and is evolving towards cognitive intelligence. The hardware value is primarily driven by domain controllers and display subsystems, with costs ranging from approximately 3,000 yuan for economy models to over 13,000 yuan for high-end models [1] - Three main drivers are contributing to new growth opportunities in the smart cockpit industry: technological upgrades, deepening penetration rates, and global expansion. The industry is transitioning from CL2 "partial cognition" to CL3 "high-level cognition" by 2027, with AI large models and multimodal interactions becoming core drivers. Qualcomm's chip platform iteration has improved AI performance by 12 times, and the penetration rate of voice interaction without wake-up commands has increased from 26% to 48% within a year [1] - The domestic penetration rate is expected to exceed 80% by 2026, leading globally, with high-level configurations accelerating penetration and driving value increase. The overseas market is entering a catch-up phase, with mainstream automakers accelerating intelligence through a "8155 scale + 8295 tiered upgrade" approach, heavily relying on collaboration with the Chinese supply chain for product implementation [1] Group 2: Market and Landscape - The smart cockpit domain control market is projected to grow from 20.82 billion yuan in 2025 to 70.16 billion yuan in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.5%, with 2026 and 2027 being critical windows. The smart cockpit display market is expected to increase from 57.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 117.1 billion yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 15% [2] - Growth in the display market is driven by multi-screen integration (HUD, co-driver screens, rear-seat screens) and high-end display technology. The competitive landscape shows Qualcomm leading the cockpit domain control chip ecosystem, with domestic advantages in other components. Qualcomm dominates the cockpit domain control chip market due to its high computing power and comprehensive product system, while Desay SV (002920) remains the leader in domain controllers [2] - In the display sector, domestic suppliers have a clear advantage, with Desay SV leading in central screens and LCD instrument panels, and Huayang Multimedia leading in HUD/AR-HUD installations [2]