国海证券：太空光伏行业景气度与中长期成长确定性持续抬升 首予行业“推荐”评级

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities highlights the increasing demand for low-cost space photovoltaic solutions in the context of large-scale low Earth orbit satellite constellations, with a focus on the transition from high-cost gallium arsenide (GaAs) cells to more affordable options like silicon-based and perovskite technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Satellite Constellation Development - China is under pressure to launch a significant number of satellites, with a plan to submit approximately 203,000 satellites to the ITU by the end of 2025, covering 14 satellite constellations [1] - Major operators and commercial satellite companies are advancing medium-scale constellations, with China Mobile planning to launch 2,520 satellites, and other companies like Yuanshen Satellite and Guodian Gaoke also making substantial submissions [1] - Despite these plans, the overall launch completion rate for major domestic constellations remains low, indicating a phase of "low launch rates and early networking" [1] Group 2: Starlink Program Insights - The Starlink program exhibits a clear generational rhythm, with a cumulative launch of approximately 11,034 satellites and an annual launch volume projected to reach around 3,200 by 2025 [2] - Starlink has opted for crystalline silicon technology to achieve cost advantages and scalability, sacrificing some efficiency for significant cost benefits [3] - Future iterations of Starlink, particularly Block V4, are likely to explore P-type silicon HJT or P-type silicon HJT-perovskite tandem structures for solar cells, enhancing reliability in space [3] Group 3: Domestic Space Photovoltaic Developments - The domestic space photovoltaic sector continues to focus on multi-junction GaAs as the core technology, while several companies are making progress in testing perovskite systems in orbit [4] - Notable advancements include Jiangyin Jinghao's perovskite components completing over three months of stable operation in orbit, and GCL-Poly's collaboration with Blue Arrow Aerospace for perovskite component testing [4] - Companies such as Maiwei Co., Ltd., Aotewi, and others are identified as relevant players in the domestic space photovoltaic market [4]