高盛谈越南“10%增长目标”：任重而道远，存两大挑战

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 10% or more for the 2026-2030 period, significantly higher than the previous target of 6.5%-7.0% and an actual growth of 6.2% [1][2] Group 1: Growth Strategy - The new five-year development plan represents a proactive elevation of past growth rates, with the government opting for aggressive investment and structural reforms to raise the growth ceiling [2] - High investment intensity, labor efficiency, and total factor productivity (TFP) improvements are critical for achieving the ambitious growth target [2] Group 2: Challenges - The labor force is no longer a reliable growth driver due to a slowdown in the growth of the working-age population and high labor participation rates, making productivity improvements essential [3] - Vietnam aims to increase labor productivity by approximately 8.5% annually over the next five years, which is a challenging target [3] - Investment remains a key pillar for future growth, but it requires careful management of funding sources and structural balance [4][11] Group 3: Investment Dynamics - Public development investment is currently skewed towards infrastructure, energy, transportation, and digitalization, with a focus on accelerated execution [4] - Private consumption is returning to normal levels rather than becoming a new growth engine, and external demand fluctuations are putting pressure on export contributions [5] Group 4: Systemic and Execution Factors - The feasibility of achieving the 10% growth target hinges on institutional execution capabilities, including streamlined administrative processes and enhanced regulatory transparency [8] - Continuous institutional reforms are necessary to create a positive feedback loop between productivity improvements and investment returns [8] Group 5: Growth Outlook - The 10% growth target is viewed as a high-end scenario rather than a baseline, with actual growth likely to be more moderate unless all critical conditions are met [9] - Stronger and better-structured external direct investment inflows are seen as key to alleviating constraints on growth [11][12]