2026成本战打响：原材料暴涨与政策退坡下的“生死局”

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a dual challenge of rising costs and declining demand, with significant price increases in core raw materials and a competitive market environment impacting profitability [1][10]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The automotive manufacturing sector is experiencing a collective price surge in key raw materials such as lithium, copper, aluminum, and tin, significantly affecting electric vehicle production [2][4]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has skyrocketed from 75,700 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to 182,200 yuan per ton by January 26, 2026, marking an increase of over 150% [2]. - The cost of copper and aluminum has also risen sharply, with domestic electrolytic copper prices exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton and aluminum prices projected to reach 3,150 USD per ton in the first half of 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles, which require significantly more raw materials than traditional fuel vehicles, are particularly vulnerable to these cost increases, with the average vehicle requiring 200 kg of aluminum and 80 kg of copper [4][5]. - The cost of DRAM for automotive applications has surged by 180% in three months, with prices for DDR5 and DDR4 memory chips increasing dramatically due to competition with the AI sector [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The Chinese automotive market is currently experiencing a downturn in consumer confidence, exacerbated by the reduction of tax incentives for electric vehicles and changes to the "trade-in" subsidy policy [10][11]. - The sales profit margin for the automotive industry in China was only 4.1% in 2025, the lowest in five years, with some companies reporting margins as low as 1.8% [11][13]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Many automotive companies are opting to absorb costs through financial schemes and temporary subsidies rather than raising prices, which could lead to a loss of market share in a highly competitive environment [11][13]. - Leading companies are seeking to strengthen ties with upstream suppliers and expand into overseas markets to mitigate domestic cost pressures [14].