ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-10 08:46Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the FORGE alliance by the U.S. aims to coordinate critical mineral policies and establish pricing standards, particularly for rare earth elements, while intentionally excluding China from this initiative [3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Alliance Formation - The U.S. is actively seeking to rally allies and accelerate the decoupling from China, as evidenced by the signing of bilateral critical mineral agreements with 11 countries and negotiations with 17 others [5][10]. - The FORGE alliance's goal is to gain control over international mineral pricing, including rare earth elements, thereby exerting pressure on China to relinquish its pricing power [5][7]. Group 2: Phased Analysis of the Alliance's Impact - Short-term Phase (0-3 years): The alliance's effectiveness will be limited due to China's significant advantages in rare earth purification and technology, making it difficult for external entities to replace production capacity [9]. - Medium-term Phase (3-10 years): If the alliance operates effectively, it could disrupt the market structure and reduce China's pricing influence through bilateral agreements and cooperation among resource and technology countries [10]. - Long-term Phase (10+ years): The outcome remains uncertain; if the alliance achieves technological breakthroughs and capacity, it may create a competitive rare earth supply chain. However, if operational issues arise, China's potential for maintaining its bargaining power through technological upgrades and resource cooperation could hinder the alliance's objectives [11].