Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education has released a positive profit forecast for 2025, expecting adjusted net profit to grow by no less than 46% and no more than 51%, amounting to between 767 million and 793 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a 6% increase in new training participants in 2025, driving revenue growth to between 12% and 46.1 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to rise by 4.4 percentage points to 17.2% in 2025, with an adjusted net profit forecast of 793 million yuan [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The vocational skills training market is expected to see continued growth due to an increase in high school graduates not entering university, with the number of such graduates rising from 119,000 in 2021 to 386,000 in 2024 [2] - The company has launched long-term courses of approximately 15 months, resulting in new enrollment numbers increasing by over 81.1% year-on-year, contributing to a total new enrollment growth rate of 6% [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, including optimizing marketing expenditure and improving school capacity utilization [3] - Marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease by 2.5 percentage points to 21.2% in 2025, continuing the downward trend from the previous year [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure is expected to decline by 33.6% to approximately 660 million yuan in 2025, as the company completes its vocational education center construction [4] - With a high dividend payout ratio, the expected dividend yield could reach 5.6% if the company maintains its 2024 payout ratio [4] Group 5: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 46.1 billion, 52.4 billion, and 60.1 billion yuan respectively, along with adjusted net profit estimates of 793 million, 1 billion, and 1.24 billion yuan [4]
中国东方教育(00667.HK)：职教培训景气上行 运营效率持续提升