花旗警告：英镑“最脆弱时刻”在5月，政治动荡与降息预期令其双重承压

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists warn that the British pound faces significant downward pressure in the coming months due to political uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1][2]. Group 1: Political and Monetary Policy Risks - Political uncertainty and monetary policy easing are identified as the two core reasons for shorting the British pound, with a convergence of these themes expected between April and May, leading to a larger market reaction [2]. - Recent political instability was triggered by the resignation of a senior member of Prime Minister Starmer's team, which has heightened political uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The options market indicates that selling pressure on the euro against the pound will increase starting in March, as the market prepares for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5]. - Citigroup's strategist anticipates that the next interest rate cut could occur as early as April, with additional cuts expected in July and November, suggesting a more aggressive easing pace than current market pricing [5]. - Citigroup maintains a bearish outlook on the pound, predicting it will fall to 88 pence against the euro by the end of June and further decline to 90 pence by the end of September [5].