HKEX(HK:00388) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-12 09:16Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) will see a decline in revenue and profit from the historical high in Q3 2025, with a supportive market activity expected in January this year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The firm estimates that HKEX's profit for Q4 2025 will decrease by 2% year-on-year, influenced by cost stickiness (up 7% year-on-year) and an increase in tax rate due to minimum tax requirements [1] - Morgan Stanley projects an average daily turnover of HK$230 billion for HKEX in Q4 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year increase but a 20% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] - Revenue for Q4 is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year, driven by approximately 12% growth in core business, partially offset by weak net investment income [1] Group 2: Trading Volume Insights - The average daily trading volume for futures is projected to decline by 16% year-on-year, while options trading volume is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year [1] - The anticipated decline in net investment income is primarily due to a reduction in the scale of margin funds [1]