供应短缺恐贯穿2026年，存储芯片价量齐升 逻辑强化，大摩分析师重申美光“增持” 评级

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast and target price for Micron due to ongoing supply shortages, reiterating an "overweight" rating and increasing the target price from $350 to $450 [1] - Analyst Joseph Moore expressed excitement about the future despite changes in the DRAM sector over the past 12 months, anticipating further price increases this year due to significant price hikes in the first quarter and indications of a severe supply shortage expected to persist until 2026 [1] - DDR5 spot prices have risen by 30% year-to-date and are currently 130% higher than January contract prices, indicating that mainstream prices could still be over 10% lower than spot prices even if they double [1] Group 2 - HBM is a critical part of the market story, and maintaining a healthy market is essential for justifying higher valuations based on the logic of "higher highs and higher lows" [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about Micron's position in HBM4, the attractiveness of DDR5 prices is expected to prevent any negative impact on earnings [2] - Micron announced at an investor meeting that it is in mass production of HBM4 and has begun shipping to customers, with its HBM supply for the 2026 calendar year already sold out and yield rates meeting expectations [2]