BUD APAC(HK:01876) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-13 02:13Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2026 EBITDA forecast by 7.1% to $1.593 billion and introduced a 2027 EBITDA forecast of $1.637 billion, maintaining a target price of HKD 9.80 per share, indicating a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 4Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA declining by 4.2%, 0.7%, 3.5%, and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] - In China, 4Q25 revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA saw declines of 11.4%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 42.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continued adjustments in performance [2] Group 2: Regional Analysis - In China, 4Q25 sales volume decreased by 3.9% due to weak performance in key channels such as dining and nightlife, while ASP fell by 7.7% due to increased investment in off-premise channels [3] - In the Eastern Asia region, 4Q25 sales volume declined by 1.3% due to a weak consumption environment in South Korea, although ASP increased by 2.5% due to price hikes in core categories [4] - The Indian market continues to show strong growth, helping to offset some pressures from the Chinese market [4] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is prioritizing growth in 2026, adopting a proactive approach to market challenges, with expectations of stabilization as the industry’s on-premise channel share is at a historical low [5] - The company may release stronger-than-industry elasticity if the on-premise channel recovers, supported by macroeconomic stabilization and strategic adjustments [5]