小摩：百威亚太中国业务拖累季度业绩 维持“中性”评级

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Q4 2025, which is 12% lower than market consensus, with a 4% decrease in sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser China is the main drag, with sales and EBITDA declining by 11% and 42% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to increased promotional activities and significant deleveraging effects [1] - Budweiser Korea's sales and EBITDA for Q4 2025 are expected to decline by 1% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, outperforming industry growth, impacted by a one-time $49 million drag from a tax dispute with the Korean government [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Positive factors include an improvement in sales momentum for Budweiser China starting Q4 2025, with plans to reignite growth in FY 2026 through increased investment in at-home consumption distribution capabilities [1] - The company forecasts a 3.4% and 5.4% year-on-year growth in sales and EBITDA for 2026, respectively [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - Budweiser has announced a dividend of $750 million for FY 2025, with a payout ratio of 150% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [1] - The company is expected to maintain its current policy of either maintaining or increasing the annual dividend per share, suggesting a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on a current 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1]