利润率仅为同侪零头，特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent attempts to transition towards artificial intelligence have highlighted its divergence from other tech giants, as its financial fundamentals deteriorate while its valuation remains high [1][3]. Group 1: Valuation and Financial Performance - Tesla's soaring valuation masks its weakening fundamentals, with the company being the only member of the "Magnificent Seven" to report a decline in actual profits over the past three years [1][3]. - The expansion of Tesla's valuation multiples is largely attributed to declining profit expectations rather than growth, indicating a significant disconnect between stock price and deteriorating fundamentals [1][3]. - Tesla's free cash flow is projected to turn negative for the first time since 2018 due to planned capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion by 2026, contrasting sharply with peers like Alphabet, which is expected to generate substantial free cash flow despite high spending [1][5]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Over the past five years, Tesla's total free cash flow was approximately $27 billion, while other tech giants generated significantly higher cash flows, with each member of the "Magnificent Seven" creating more free cash flow in the past year than Tesla's total over five years [4][5]. - Tesla's planned capital expenditures for 2026, aimed at supporting its ambitions in autonomous driving and AI, will lead to a substantial negative cash flow, highlighting its financial strain compared to competitors [5][6]. Group 3: Profitability and Market Position - Tesla's operating profit margin is currently below 5%, while other tech giants have margins ranging from 11% to nearly 60%, indicating the challenges of building a tech giant on an automotive manufacturing base [7][8]. - Tesla's market share in the global automotive sector is only 1.8%, which limits its ability to leverage its position for higher profitability compared to its peers [7][8]. Group 4: Funding and Financial Strategy - Tesla has indicated to investors that it may require additional funding due to increasing cash consumption, raising concerns about CEO Elon Musk's broader business empire and potential restructuring [2][8]. - Historically, Tesla has engaged in 11 rounds of public equity financing, which is nearly equivalent to the total number of financings conducted by the other six tech giants combined, reflecting its reliance on external funding [8].