SMIC(HK:00981) Ge Long Hui·2026-02-13 17:40Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a significant divergence from rational market boundaries for SMIC, with defined support and resistance levels suggesting potential trading ranges and highlighting liquidity risks in the current market structure [1][3]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The current price of SMIC is 69.6 HKD, with key support at 68.3 HKD and a lower testing area at 62.7 HKD, while resistance is at 75.2 HKD and an upward target at 80.4 HKD [1]. - The technical framework suggests that the exercise price range of 62.7-75.2 HKD is within a reasonable technical boundary, but the market structure shows a significant deviation from rational limits [1]. Group 2: Market Structure and Imbalance - There are 145 existing call warrants with a clear structural differentiation, where 30 products in the deep in-the-money range (41.50-62.93 HKD) serve as stock substitutes, and 8 products in the near-the-money range (68.88-69.04 HKD) act as daily trading tools [2]. - The far out-of-the-money range (81.81-168.88 HKD) contains 80 products, accounting for 55% of the total, indicating a market characterized by irrational exuberance [2]. Group 3: Liquidity Risks - The total street volume of 1,923.69 million warrants shows that the far out-of-the-money range holds 1,438.46 million warrants (74.78%), leading to a concentration risk above the technical resistance level of 75.2 HKD [3]. - This concentration reflects a collective market bet on a breakout, neglecting liquidity risks, which could lead to significant selling pressure if the stock fails to break through resistance [3]. Group 4: Trading Behavior - The total trading volume of 243,367 thousand HKD shows that the far out-of-the-money range accounted for 112,840 thousand HKD (46.37%), indicating a heavy concentration of funds on breakout speculation [4]. - The middle out-of-the-money range contributed 56,909 thousand HKD (23.38%), totaling 69.75% of the trading volume concentrated above the technical resistance level [4]. Group 5: Product Efficiency and Recommendations - The middle out-of-the-money range exhibits relatively better risk-return characteristics with an average implied volatility of 53.90% and a leverage of 4.76 times, providing a more reasonable balance [5]. - The near-the-money range has an implied volatility of 52.68% and a leverage of 3.39 times, but the limited number of products (8) restricts operational flexibility [5]. - The far out-of-the-money range, despite a leverage of 5.35 times, has a high implied volatility of 59.11%, increasing holding costs and indicating a severe mismatch between costs and expected returns [5]. Group 6: Systemic Risks - Analysis reveals that several far out-of-the-money products exhibit "zero trading high street volume" characteristics, such as a product with an exercise price of 88.93 HKD having a street volume of 105.40 million but zero trades, making it difficult for investors to exit at reasonable prices [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on products within the technical range, particularly in the near-the-money and slightly out-of-the-money areas, which offer better terms and liquidity protection [6].