GUOSHENG SECURITIES(SZ:002670) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-14 11:46Group 1: CPI Analysis - The January CPI in the US was 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expected and the previous value, marking a decline for three consecutive months since September 2025 [3][4] - Core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, while the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, also below expectations [3][4] - Energy price declines, along with decreases in used car prices and slight slowdowns in housing and food inflation, contributed to the overall CPI being below expectations [4] Group 2: Non-Farm Employment Report - The US added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025 [6][12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025 [6][12] - Employment improvements were primarily driven by a few sectors, particularly education and healthcare, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs, indicating a lack of broad-based recovery [12][14] Group 3: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, US stock markets, bond yields, and the dollar index experienced fluctuations, while gold prices initially fell before rising [16][17] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 increasing from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI release, indicating a slight warming of rate cut expectations [17][21] - The combination of strong non-farm data and weak CPI has led to a complex interplay in asset prices, with ongoing debates about growth resilience and inflation persistence [21][22]