BUD APAC(HK:01876) Ge Long Hui·2026-02-14 14:12Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]