BUD APAC(HK:01876) Ge Long Hui·2026-02-14 14:12Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]