影响万亿资本的市场叙事争夺：一边是“AI颠覆一切”，一边是“AI回报不够”

Group 1 - The current global market is experiencing a rare "high noise, high velocity" period, making it difficult for even seasoned traders to navigate. Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business head, Tony Pasquariello, noted that this level of unpredictability is reminiscent of major trauma periods like the global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The core anxiety in the market stems from two opposing narratives regarding AI: one that sees AI as a disruptive risk leading to sell-offs in "victim" sectors, and another that questions the return on investment from AI capital expenditures. This tension is causing significant volatility, with aggressive sell-offs occurring whenever marginal AI risks are perceived [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has stalled around the 7000-point mark this year, failing to break through, while beneath the surface, there are turbulent undercurrents. Goldman Sachs' "AI leaders vs. laggards" pair trade recently achieved its largest single-day gain, primarily driven by shorting "laggards" [1][4] Group 2 - Global capital allocation is subtly shifting due to crowded U.S. markets and valuation pressures, with incremental funds increasingly flowing overseas. The South Korean and Japanese stock markets have recently shown strong performance, particularly the KOSPI index, which has doubled since the end of 2024 and achieved its best weekly performance in five years [3][8] - The current market environment is filled with contradictory signals, making investment challenging. There is a rare phenomenon of simultaneous buying in both cyclical assets (like industrial stocks and raw materials) and defensive assets (like consumer staples and utilities) [4] - The debate surrounding AI's fundamental impact is intensifying, focusing on who the beneficiaries and victims are, and whether AI leads to value creation or destruction. This debate has resulted in increased volatility for related stocks and thematic baskets, particularly in the software sector [6] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has seen a stagnation in the wake of non-farm payroll and CPI data releases, while overseas markets have experienced a surge. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Ryan Hammond, non-U.S. equity funds have seen an inflow of $89 billion this year, compared to only $16 billion for U.S. equity funds [8] - The South Korean stock market is leading this trend, with the MSCI Korea index rising 28% year-to-date in U.S. dollar terms. Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist for Asia Pacific, Tim Moe, maintains an overweight rating and has raised the KOSPI index target to 6400 points, citing impressive earnings growth and attractive valuations [10] - The Japanese market has also performed well, with the Nikkei index recently rising by 5%. Notably, the correlation between the Japanese stock market and the currency has seemingly reversed, indicating a shift from "currency depreciation trades" to healthier "reflation trades" [12] Group 4 - Despite the uncertain macro environment, hedge funds have shown remarkable resilience. Tony Pasquariello observed that macro discretionary funds accumulated significant profit buffers in January, while long-short equity strategies have generally avoided risks [14] - Looking ahead, market trends appear to favor active management over passive investment, and liquidity is becoming more favorable for liquid assets rather than illiquid ones. Strategies that can adapt to narrative changes in this noisy and fast-paced market seem to be gaining an advantage [14]