避险模式！大摩：市场开始买美债了

Core Viewpoint - Investors are retreating from risk assets and turning to U.S. Treasury bonds as concerns grow over the sustainability of AI investment returns and high market valuations [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a shift in market sentiment, with investors becoming increasingly sensitive to the negative externalities of the AI investment cycle [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached new highs, but stocks directly impacted by AI disruptions have begun to decline [2][4] - A basket of 108 AI-impacted stocks has shown a significant divergence from the broader market, indicating a potential peak in AI optimism [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.6%, driven by capital expenditures from hyperscalers [1] - However, the firm warns that this growth comes with risks, particularly if investment returns do not materialize, leading to potential overinvestment issues [1][4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - High-income groups (earning over $100,000) have shown a notable shift in their perception of the economy since the beginning of the year, reflecting concerns over asset price volatility [5][6][7] - The decline in confidence among affluent consumers is often a precursor to economic recession, suggesting a cautious outlook for the economy [7][9] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation data has surprised to the downside, with January CPI growth at 0.17%, below expectations, and core CPI at 0.30% [12][13] - This unexpected decline in inflation is reshaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with markets pricing in potential interest rate cuts by mid-2026 [13] - The Fed's recent bond purchasing operations have provided liquidity support, further benefiting short-term U.S. Treasuries [13]