BUD APAC(HK:01876) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-16 02:47Group 1 - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are expected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are projected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 0.167 billion [1] Group 2 - The company's normalized EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] - The net profit for the period is reported at USD 489 million, influenced by a one-time item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea [1] - UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for Budweiser from 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 3%, mainly reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation, although a recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated to slow down and may be delayed until the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3 - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been lowered by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, resulting in a reduction of EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]