Nvidia(US:NVDA) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-17 07:49Core Insights - The storage industry is entering a "once-in-a-lifetime" super cycle driven by the AI boom, with demand for storage chips expected to surge dramatically [1][11]. - Phison Electronics, a leader in NAND flash memory controllers, highlights a critical supply-demand imbalance, indicating that the market is not just facing shortages but a life-and-death struggle across the supply chain [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for storage is quantitatively staggering; for instance, NVIDIA's new GPU, Vera Rubin, could consume 200 Exabytes of storage if 10 million units are sold, which is 20% of last year's total NAND Flash production [4][17]. - The AI-driven demand is validated by over $600 billion in capital expenditures from the four major U.S. cloud service providers this year, indicating a robust and ongoing need for storage solutions [4][14]. Market Conditions - The supply chain is experiencing unprecedented pressure, with upstream manufacturers demanding prepayment for three years of orders, a practice not seen before in the electronics industry [5][22]. - Phison Electronics is planning to raise $1 to $2 billion in operational funds to secure upstream supply sources amid these stringent market conditions [5][25]. Impact on Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is predicted to face a "collapse wave," with global smartphone production expected to decrease by 200 to 250 million units this year due to material shortages [6][7]. - The cost of components has skyrocketed; for example, the price of an 8GB eMMC chip has surged from $1.5 to over $20, significantly impacting the bill of materials for consumer products [7][26]. Long-term Supply Constraints - Major manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are adopting a cautious approach to capacity expansion due to past losses, leading to a belief that shortages could persist until at least 2027, with some reports suggesting as late as 2030 [8][31][32]. - The current shortages are primarily driven by cloud demand, and a potential surge in AI infrastructure development in China could exacerbate the situation further [8][34]. Emerging Opportunities - Space applications are seen as a potential solution to the AI computing bottleneck, as they can leverage solar power and natural cooling, although the reliability requirements are significantly higher [9][10]. - Phison Electronics aims to transition from a traditional memory supplier to a provider of high-value solutions, investing heavily in R&D to adapt to the evolving market landscape [11][47].