Industry Overview - The global television industry has entered a phase of stock competition driven by structural upgrades, with future core drivers being larger screens and display technology advancements [1] - Consumer demand for larger televisions is increasing, with average global TV size rising from 42.5 inches in 2017 to 52 inches in 2023 [1] - Mini LED televisions are becoming a mainstream upgrade direction, with expected shipments of 8.2 million units in 2024, a 100% year-on-year increase, surpassing OLED televisions at 7 million units [1] Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the upstream supply chain has strengthened the competitiveness of Chinese companies, with the global LCD panel capacity now predominantly located in mainland China [1] - By 2024, the shipment area of mainland liquid crystal panel manufacturers is expected to exceed 70%, following the exit of major Korean companies like Samsung and LG [1] - The global TV market demand remains stable at around 200 million units, but market concentration has increased, with the global TV CR4 rising from 45% in 2018 to 57% in the first half of 2025 [1] Company Performance - TCL Electronics is transitioning to a global leader driven by both profit and market share, with average TV size increasing from 52.4 inches in 2021 to 63.3 inches in 2024 [2] - The share of TCL's TV shipments for sizes 65 inches and above has grown from 11.1% in 2021 to 29% by 2025 [2] - TCL's Mini LED TV market share is projected to increase by 4.1 percentage points to 28.7% in the first half of 2025, making it the market leader [2] Market Expansion - TCL's overseas market share is steadily increasing, with North America rising from 4.5% in 2016 to 18% in 2023, and Western Europe from 2% to 6% in the same period [2] - The company leverages its brand influence and global distribution network to empower innovative business development, including distributed photovoltaic business expected to grow 104% year-on-year to HKD 12.87 billion in 2024 [3] - The AI+AR glasses business is also performing well, with a market share of 45% in the domestic market as of Q1 2025, making it the industry leader [3] Investment Outlook - The integration of the supply chain enhances TCL Electronics' competitiveness, with expectations for continued growth in overseas market share [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from structural upgrades in the industry, with projected EPS of HKD 0.95, 1.12, and 1.31 for 2025 to 2027 [3] - A DCF valuation method suggests a target price of HKD 16.0, corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for 2025 to 2027 [3]
TCL电子(01070.HK)深度研究报告：全球突破与盈利修复正当时