美国关税重创墨西哥汽车业，中国车企趁机抄底，特朗普急眼了！

Core Viewpoint - Mexico is cautiously accepting the expansion of Chinese automotive companies, following a more welcoming stance from Canada, which presents a challenge for the U.S. as Chinese brands extend their reach into North America [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mexico ranks as the 4th largest exporter and 7th largest producer of light vehicles globally, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with projections indicating that 2.8 million out of 4 million vehicles produced in 2024 will be exported to the U.S. [3] - The Nissan-Mercedes-Benz plant in Aguascalientes, Mexico, is a target for acquisition by Chinese automotive firms, with the plant's production capacity historically underutilized at less than 60% [3] - The plant's closure is part of Nissan's broader strategic realignment, influenced by tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Mexican-made vehicles [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican-made vehicles by the Trump administration has significantly impacted Mexico's automotive industry, leading to a projected decline in exports to the U.S. by nearly 3% in 2025 [3][4] - If current tariffs persist, Mexico could see a more substantial drop in automotive exports by 2026, resulting in the loss of approximately 60,000 jobs in the automotive sector by 2025 [4] Group 3: Chinese Automotive Expansion - Chinese automotive brands are rapidly expanding globally, with projections indicating that by 2025, their total global sales will reach 30.42 million vehicles, surpassing Japan for the first time [5] - In Mexico, the market share of Chinese automotive brands is expected to rise from 0% in 2020 to nearly 10% by 2025, positioning Mexico as a strategic hub for Chinese companies targeting the North American market [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - Mexican officials are concerned that a successful acquisition by Chinese firms could provoke a strong reaction from the U.S., leading to private discussions about delaying such investments until trade negotiations with the U.S. are concluded [5][6] - Recent tariff adjustments by Mexico, aimed at balancing trade deficits, have strained economic relations with China, despite the intention to boost domestic production [6]