IFBH(06603.HK)：预计IF健康增长 INNOCOCO调整接近尾声

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025, with an expected decrease of 27% to 32%, amounting to between 22.65 million and 24.32 million USD, which is slightly below previous expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Brand Performance - The if brand is expected to grow healthily, with projected revenue growth of 15% to 20% year-on-year, while Innococo is anticipated to experience a high double-digit decline in revenue due to short-term channel adjustments [2] - The overall revenue is under pressure due to the expected decline in Innococo's revenue, but the coconut water industry is projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2026, benefiting from health beverage consumption trends [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Structure - For the second half of 2025, net profit is expected to decline by 41% to 51%, resulting in a range of 7.68 million to 9.34 million USD, with net profit margin decreasing by 9.3 to 11.3 percentage points [3] - The appreciation of the Thai Baht against the USD is expected to continue impacting the company's gross margin negatively, while sales and distribution expenses are projected to rise due to foreign exchange fluctuations [3] - Marketing expenses are anticipated to increase due to the appointment of brand ambassadors and promotional activities, despite a significant decline in Innococo's revenue [3] - Administrative expenses are expected to decrease in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, mainly due to reduced listing expenses [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 12.2%, 11.6%, and 11.7% respectively, now estimating net profits of 23.34 million, 29.90 million, and 34.90 million USD [3] - The current stock price is trading at a valuation of 17.1 and 14.6 times P/E for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a target price reduction of 11.36% to 19.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 31.05% compared to the current price [3]