“硬件防御”对冲AI焦虑，苹果与纳指相关性创20年新低

Core Viewpoint - Apple is emerging as a safe haven for investors amid market volatility driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with its correlation to the Nasdaq 100 index dropping to a near 20-year low, providing a rare alternative for funds seeking to avoid AI uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Apple's 40-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell to 0.21 last week, the lowest since 2006, down from a high of 0.92 in May 2022, primarily due to its decision not to engage in the AI arms race, making it an outlier among tech stocks [1]. - The decoupling of Apple from the broader market occurs as investors oscillate between fears of unrecouped AI investments and concerns over various industries being disrupted by the same technology [1][6]. - Apple's unique position has garnered market favor, with analysts noting that its lack of correlation is beneficial in the current environment of heightened investor anxiety regarding potential disruptions [3]. Group 2: Performance and Trends - Apple outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index, rising 3.2% on a recent Tuesday while the index fell by 0.1%, marking the third instance this month where Apple exceeded the index's performance by at least 3 percentage points [4]. - Despite the defensive attributes, Apple faced challenges, including an 8% drop last week, the largest since April, attributed to concerns over delays in the upgrade of its Siri virtual assistant and rising memory chip prices [5]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The market's preference for Apple reflects a broader inclination towards hardware businesses amid AI uncertainties, as the company is set to host a product launch event soon, with investors betting on its hardware ecosystem for stable returns [6]. - The "hardware defense" logic suggests that Apple's revenue, based on physical product sales, is less susceptible to direct replacement by AI tools, contrasting with software and service companies facing direct threats from generative AI [6].