UBS(US:UBS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-19 09:12Core Insights - Despite fiscal stimulus measures from major economies like the US, Japan, and Germany, the global impact is expected to be much lower than market expectations, with UBS projecting a contribution of only 8 basis points to global GDP growth in 2026 and a potential drag of 14 basis points in 2027 [1][5][8] Group 1: Global Fiscal Position - UBS's analysis indicates that the global fiscal stance is only slightly better than neutral, with the predicted fiscal shock for 2026 and 2027 being close to zero [5][6] - Historical data shows that the fiscal stance has fluctuated significantly over the past 20 years, but the predicted values for 2026 and 2027 are relatively mild compared to past years [5][6] Group 2: US Fiscal Stimulus - The US "Big Beautiful" plan is estimated to contribute approximately 45 basis points to economic growth, but after accounting for tariff impacts and state and local government drag, the net fiscal shock is around 30 basis points [6][7] - Historical context reveals that in the past 20 years, there have been nine years of fiscal stimulus in the US, all exceeding the predicted level for 2026, indicating that the current stimulus is not particularly remarkable [6][7] Group 3: Japan and Europe - Japan's fiscal stance has only loosened by 0.9 percentage points of GDP so far, which is insufficient to significantly boost global economic growth [7][8] - Germany's fiscal stimulus is now expected to be about 1 percentage point of GDP, which constitutes roughly two-thirds of the total stimulus in the Eurozone, but this is still below market expectations [7][8]