鹰派预期升温！多数经济学家预测日央行将提前加息

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a significant shift in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate policy, with expectations for a potential rate hike as early as March or April, influenced by economic and price outlooks [1] - A recent Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the BOJ to raise the policy rate to 1% by the end of June, moving the timeline forward from previous predictions [1] - Morgan Stanley's research shows that some investors are pricing in the possibility of an earlier rate hike in April, with discussions of a potential action in March [1] Group 2 - The January meeting minutes reveal a convergence of internal disagreements among BOJ policymakers regarding the timing of interest rate hikes, with some members expressing concerns about the transmission of labor costs to core CPI [2] - Key inflation data releases are lagging behind policy meetings, with national CPI and Tokyo CPI data set to be published after the April meeting, creating uncertainty for BOJ decisions [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from BOJ officials, as their statements may provide critical insights into future policy directions during this data vacuum [2] Group 3 - Investors are developing a new understanding of the fiscal stance of Prime Minister Kishi's government, shifting from concerns over excessive fiscal expansion to evaluating selective fiscal easing [3] - The focus is on the latest developments from the Consumption Tax Reduction National Committee, as market participants assess its potential impact on fiscal management frameworks [3] Group 4 - There is a growing interest in Japan's economic upward potential, moving beyond anti-inflation logic to encompass security and strategic investment areas [4] - Investors are particularly interested in the implications of national security-related policies on various industries, with expectations for an expansion of related fiscal budgets [5] - The focus is on crisis management and strategic investment sectors, including economic security, healthcare, and key strategic industries like AI and semiconductors [5]