Nvidia's crash to $100 has started, expert warns

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's multi-year rally may be entering a bearish phase, with technical signals indicating a potential correction towards the $100 region, representing a 47% drop from the last closing price of $189 [1]. Technical Analysis - Nvidia has traded within a defined ascending channel for approximately 12 years, experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles, with recent price action mirroring prior cycle peaks [3]. - The stock recently tested a lower-highs zone near the channel's upper boundary before a sharp pullback, with the monthly RSI showing a bearish divergence, indicating a potential end to the bullish trend [4]. - The RSI has rolled over from overbought levels, and the stock has broken below its 50-week moving average, historically signaling deeper bear phases [6]. - Past corrections have typically extended to the 200-week moving average, which currently sits near $100, forming a downside target [7]. Fundamental Outlook - Nvidia's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, due on February 25, is projected to show revenue between $65.6 billion and $65.9 billion, reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase driven by AI demand [8]. - Analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $1.52 and gross margins around 75%, with a consensus price target of $255.82, implying a 36% upside from the current price of $188 [8]. - Despite bullish sentiment on hyperscaler capex and Blackwell ramps, high expectations may lead to volatility if results do not meet projections [9].