Why Microsft (MSFT) stock is on the brink of collapse

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant long-term warning signals as a result of a sharp selloff, pushing the stock into a critical technical zone [1] - The stock has fallen to $397.29, down 7.67% in the latest monthly candle, breaking below the $410 level and testing a key long-term support zone [2] Technical Analysis - The focus is on the 50-month moving average (MA), which has served as Microsoft's primary structural support since December 2011, previously leading to bullish reversals [3] - A confirmed monthly close below the 50-month MA would indicate a major technical breakdown, with the next key support at the 100-month moving average near $300, aligning with significant Fibonacci retracement levels [4] - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the crucial 44 support level, with a potential break below opening the path toward the oversold threshold of 30, which could coincide with a price decline toward the 100-month moving average [5] Financial Performance - Following the fiscal Q2 earnings report in late January, Microsoft reported a 17% revenue growth to $81.3 billion, exceeding estimates, but concerns arose from a $37.5 billion capital expenditure primarily for AI data centers and GPUs [6] - Despite robust demand for AI and cloud services, heavy spending has led to skepticism among investors, with some major funds trimming positions due to fears of delayed returns and potential margin pressure [7]