存储巨头的“复仇”

Core Insights - The storage chip industry is undergoing an unprecedented "power reversal," transitioning from a state of overcapacity and price collapse to becoming a strong price setter amid the AI boom [1][2] - Major storage companies are actively adjusting their product structures, shifting capacity from traditional memory chips to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) required by AI data centers, thus managing supply to reclaim market power [1][12] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The AI data center demand has siphoned off most of the production capacity, leading to a significant supply chain crisis for consumer electronics and automotive industries [1][12] - Counterpoint predicts that the average global smartphone price will increase by approximately 6.9% by 2026 due to rising storage costs [1][15] Group 2: Historical Context - Micron announced a $100 billion investment plan in October 2022 to build the largest semiconductor manufacturing facility in U.S. history, expected to create around 50,000 jobs [3] - The previous upcycle in the storage industry began in 2020 due to increased demand from remote work and online learning, leading to a surge in PC shipments by 13.1% [4] Group 3: Price Fluctuations - In 2021, the price of DRAM and NAND chips rose significantly, with average inventory levels at historical lows [4][8] - The price of HDDs surged due to the popularity of the cryptocurrency Chia, which relies on hard drive space for mining [5] Group 4: Current Market Conditions - By 2023, the average selling price of DRAM continued to plummet, with some types experiencing quarterly shipment declines of 13% to 18% [8][11] - Samsung's operating profit fell by over 80% year-on-year, marking the lowest record since 2009, while Micron's revenue halved [11] Group 5: Strategic Shifts - As AI data center demand surged, major storage companies proactively reduced production of DDR4/DDR5 to allocate capacity to more profitable HBM [12][13] - By 2027, SK Hynix plans to allocate nearly 40% of its DRAM capacity to HBM, with similar strategies announced by Samsung and Micron [13] Group 6: Future Projections - The price of HBM3e is projected to be 4-5 times that of DDR5 server memory, with profits from HBM being 10 times higher than DDR4 [15] - The global HBM market is expected to reach $100 billion by 2028, up from $4 billion in 2023, indicating a significant shift in profitability [15] Group 7: Competitive Landscape - Other players in the storage market, such as Western Digital and Seagate, have seen stock prices increase significantly due to rising demand for HDDs from AI data centers [16] - Chinese manufacturers like Changxin Storage and Nanya Technology are expected to benefit from the shift in production focus towards less demanding segments [16] Group 8: Challenges Ahead - Despite positive market signals, storage giants remain cautious about overexpansion due to fears of demand fluctuations [17] - HBM production faces challenges such as lower yield rates and higher wafer consumption compared to traditional DRAM, which could lead to supply-demand imbalances [18]