ATFX：金价维持上升趋势线结构运行，逼近关键阻力5371

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have continued to rise, currently trading above $5180, reflecting a combination of risk premium expansion and trend continuation effects [1] Fundamental Analysis - The global risk environment has intensified, with Trump proposing a temporary global tariff of up to 15% under "Clause 122," increasing trade policy uncertainty [1] - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, fluctuating US-Iran relations, and the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to a resurgence of safe-haven demand for gold [1] - US core inflation remains resilient while economic growth is marginally slowing, with real interest rates lacking sustained upward momentum [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, but the market remains watchful of future policy directions, providing structural support for gold in the absence of significant increases in real yields [1] Technical Analysis - The 4-hour chart indicates that gold prices have been following a clear upward trend line since early February, with multiple rebounds off the trend line and higher lows forming a stable upward structure [2] - After stabilizing and rebounding in the $4950–5000 range, gold prices broke through the $5106 resistance level, shifting the short-term structure from consolidation to continuation [2] - Current prices are oscillating above $5106, with the trend line structure intact [2] - Key resistance is located around $5371, which corresponds to previous highs and significant horizontal pressure, representing a critical technical hurdle for bulls [2] - If prices consolidate between $5180–$5250 and break above $5371, a new expansion phase may begin [2] - Conversely, if prices fall below $5106, short-term momentum may weaken, potentially leading to a retest of the $4966 level, which is near the trend line support [2] - Overall, gold remains within an upward trend line structure, with fundamental risk premiums and technical trends reinforcing each other [2]